2007: The Year in Review

In 2007 Africa and the world witnessed changes in all walks of life from politics to the economy to the arts to entertainment. Some of the changes were positive and uplifting, many others continued the sorry saga of humanity’s propensities for war and greed. This special issue offers general reviews of the year around the world and in some of Africa’s major countries (Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt) and in African entertainment.

 

 

The Year Gone By Jean-Jacques Cornish

Trend Towards Democracy By George Katito

Nigeria in 2007: The Best and The Worst This Day

South Africa: Year in Review 2007

Conciliation versus conflict in Egypt Al-Ahram

World politics: Bloodshed, bombshells – and new beginnings By Katherine Butler

2007: African Entertainment Year in Review

The Year Gone By Jean-Jacques Cornish Africa’s political and economic balance sheet continues to move into the black.

The long-awaited European Union-Africa Summit in Lisbon earlier this month heard that when leaders of the two continents last met in Cairo seven years ago, there were no fewer than 14 conflicts raging on African soil -- making up 50% of violent deaths on the planet.

These chilling statistics have more than halved.

The continent’s GDP was less than 1% between 1995 and 2000. In the first five years of this century it rose to 4,3%. Since then it has increased to 5,5% and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates it will reach 6,8% this year.

Foreign investment soared from $200-million in the Eighties to $20-billion last year.

Nevertheless Africa remains the most violent continent on Earth.

At the end of an eventful year, these are some of the features:

Algeria

The twin suicide bombings in Algiers last week demonstrated the ability of al-Qaeda to hit key targets in the Maghreb. It showed there is no room for complacency by Algerian authorities -- allowing a slide-back into the civil war in the Nineties, which claimed more than 200 000 lives.

The efficacy of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s decision to end that strife with an amnesty to terrorists who surrendered their arms was brought into question with the disclosure that one of last week’s bombers was the beneficiary of such a pardon.

Of some comfort to the Algerian authorities is the increased international awareness of its problems, post-9/11.

Angola

Angola’s economic growth steams ahead. GDP growth since 1995 averaged 6,6% but, on the strength of increased oil revenues, reached 11% in 2004 and is forecast by the IMF to average 18% a year from 2005 to 2007.

Economic activity is restricted to the oil and diamond sectors, leaving many Angolans unemployed.

Corruption, says Transparency International, is rampant with $1 in $5 earned finding its way into the back pockets of the ruling elite.

The low-level insurgency by the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC) should have ended with the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the government in August last year. However, attacks against Angolan armed forces convoys and outposts continue to be reported. FLEC continues to press for independence for the oil-rich enclave.

Burundi

Burundi’s democratically elected government is making heavy weather of getting the last active rebel group into the kraal. The result of President Pierre Nkurunziza’s efforts to exploit a split in the National Liberation Forces of Agathon Rwasa left 40 rebels dead, but no return by either side to the monitoring commission they quit in July -- 13 months after signing a truce.

The rebels failed to keep appointments with South African mediator Charles Nqakula and are understood to have resumed recruitment.

Côte d’Ivoire

Next year could be Côte d’Ivoire’s long overdue election year. President Laurent Gbagbo and Prime Minister Guillaume Soro signed supplementary agreements to the Ouagadougou accord signed in March between state and rebels in Burkina Faso under the mediation of President Blaise Campaore.

The new agreements cover the merging of the official military with the rebel Forces Nouvelles that have controlled the north of the country since it split five years ago. They also lay the groundwork for free and fair elections.

Democratic Republic of Congo

More than a year after his election victory Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila finds it impossible to contain the Tutsi rebel leader, Laurent Nkunda, in the Kivus on his country’s eastern border with Rwanda and Uganda.

The United Nations’ peacekeeping force, Monuc, promises to muscle up its involvement to include air support and artillery for the 20 000 government forces that have been unable to bring Nkunda’s 4 000 men to heel.

Kabila is taking diplomatic heat to facilitate the return of Jean-Pierre Bemba, his chief political rival who faces high treason charges after a street battle in March that left 200 dead.

Bemba overstayed two deadlines granted to allow him to seek medical treatment in Portugal.

He reportedly fears losing his Senate seat, which would mean loss of immunity from prosecution.

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi repeatedly promised to settle his country’s border dispute with Eritrea peacefully.

Yet six years after signing the Algiers agreement ending their war, Ethiopia continues to dig its heels in against the independent boundary commission’s ruling, awarding the town of Badme to Eritrea. The border remains tense.

Both sides appear unable to resolve the dispute. Eritrea considers the continued presence of Ethiopian troops in its territory to be a violation of its sovereignty with the UN taking sides with Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia poured 60 000 troops into Somalia at the start of the year to help the transitional government of Abdullahi Ysuf drive out the Islamic Courts that controlled the capital Mogadishu.

Promises to withdraw speedily proved empty and by year’s end at least 35 000 Ethiopian troops continue to prop up the state in Mogadishu.

Liberia

Africa’s first democratically elected president, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia, has her work cut out rebuilding the country after a protracted civil war. She was commended by World Bank president Robert Zoellick for doing “a remarkable job in restoring stability and moving Liberia to a path of peace and development”.

Liberia is being rewarded with R1,5-billion in debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Multi-Lateral Debt Relief Initiatives operated by the World Bank and IMF.

Mauritania

Mauritania remains a beacon of hope in the Maghreb. The military junta that ended Maaiuiya Ould Taya’s 25-year authoritarian rule kept its word to restore democracy to the vast country.

Sidi Ould Sheikh Abdallahi, who won the polls in March, is working at healing differences between the black and Berber elements of the population. Slavery was only abolished this century.

Nigeria

Nigerian President Umaru Yar Adua made his first visit to Washington, source of the most vociferous criticism of the election that put him in office earlier this year.

Reiterating his undertaking to work for transparency, accountability and a society free of corruption was well received in the United States capital. Far more popular, however, was his undertaking to partner Africom -- the new American military command structure for the African continent.

Africom raised hackles and rang alarm bells in several African capitals, including Pretoria, despite US undertakings that it will not mean US troops or bases on the continent.

Somalia

A change of prime ministers in Somalia saw Ali Mohamed Gedi replaced by Nur Hassan Hussein, but brought no semblance of peace to the country that has been without an effective government since the fall of dictator Siad Barre in 1991.

Until President Abdullahi Yusuf can create a truly inclusive government involving the various clans, there is no prospect of this either.

Piracy continues to make the Somali seaboard the most dangerous stretch of coast in the world, despite American efforts to patrol and police it.

The ying and the yang of the continent is illustrated by the democratic progress in neighbouring Somaliland preparing for its second democratic presidential elections next year.

Sudan

Only a fraction of the hybrid 26 000-strong African Union-UN peacekeeping force for Darfur will be on the ground in January. Sudanese President Omar al Bashir is accused once again of dragging his heels by refusing to accept anything but African boots on the ground. The delay is exacerbated by the failure of developed countries to provide the vital support helicopters for the operation.

Uganda

Uganda’s government signed a truce in September last year with the Lord’s Resistance Army that has waged a 20-year insurrection involving dragooning thousands of young people as child soldiers and sex slaves. But the deal did not stop the fighting. Mozambique’s former president, Joachim Chissano, began mediation efforts in October that could bring the rebels back to negotiations chaired by the southern Sudanese government in Juba next month.

Zimbabwe

Economists say Zimbabwe’s four-figure inflation is the highest on Earth. It’s not possible to be more exact because the country’s shelves are so bare there are not enough goods to fill their measuring “baskets”.

Nevertheless Robert Mugabe’s hold on power persists. His ruling Zanu-PF gave him the green light last week to run for a sixth term as president.

By their silence at the Lisbon summit and afterwards, when he called his chief critic, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a Nazi and fascist, Mugabe’s regional colleagues showed there is no bridge too far for the octogenarian Zimbabwe leader.

Their resolve will come under scrutiny again after their SADC tribunal judgement ordering Mugabe’s regime to keep its hands off the farm of 73-year-old Michael Campbell who was unable to get such legal relief from his courts.

 

From Mail & Guardian    

 

 

Trend Towards Democracy By George Katito

SEVERAL African countries made notable progress towards good governance this year, and there is reason to be optimistic that this trend should continue.

 

Nevertheless, as governance crises persist in Zimbabwe and the Horn of Africa, and as Chinese investors make fewer demands on African countries to respect democratic principles, optimism on the future of good governance in Africa should be tempered with caution.

 

The overriding trend over the year was towards democratic and peaceful changes of political leadership. During the year, 22 African countries held elections that were predominantly peaceful and declared "free and fair".

 

Notably, Sierra Leone's presidential election saw an opposition leader carry 55% of a national vote that, while affected by violence, was widely considered legitimate.

 

Results of Nigeria's state and presidential elections in May, on the other hand, were broadly contested. Widespread irregularities in the management of polling stations, reports of intimidation of the opposition and allegations of electoral fraud raised doubt about the results. However, Nigeria's elections stand as the exception.

 

Granted, elections alone no longer represent evidence of good governance. In recognition of this, the African Union developed the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) in 2002. Under peer review, states voluntarily agree to an assessment of their compliance with international standards of political, economic and corporate governance, and socioeconomic development. Algeria and SA produced peer review reports this year, joining Kenya, Ghana and Rwanda, which are implementing recommendations made through the process. Benin, Mozambique and Uganda are expected to complete the process next year.

 

Two former African heads of state, Charles Taylor of Liberia and Frederick Chiluba of Zambia, had legal proceedings initiated against them; Taylor for human rights violations and Chiluba for corruption. Mozambique's former head of state, Joaquim Chissano, on the other hand, received a sizeable award in recognition of his contribution to good governance from the London-based Mo Ibrahim Foundation.

 

As these and other initiatives to promote governance bore fruit, other crises persisted, notably in Zimbabwe. Hyperinflationary conditions worsened alongside high unemployment and widespread poverty. Although modest progress was made towards building consensus between the ruling Zanu (PF) and the opposition Movement of Democratic Change in the second half, the status quo is likely to persist in the coming year.

 

As the country heads towards elections in March, only modest change can be expected to the political governance of the country and leadership.

 

Looking ahead into next year, the quality of governance in Africa could depend on the extent to which foreign investors require good political governance as a precondition for conducting business.

 

Chinese investors, in particular, have been willing to grant developmental and financial assistance with little regard to governance and human rights records, removing the incentive for African countries to comply with standards of good governance. Sudan, in particular, continued to be the greatest recipient of Chinese foreign direct investment despite a continuing governance crisis in its western Darfur region.

 

Nevertheless, the scales seem to be tipping towards improved governance in several African countries.

 

While standards of governance vary from country to country, there seems to be reason to be optimistic.

 

More African governments appear to be willing to open themselves to scrutiny and to create more transparent political systems. Perceptions in some parts of Africa seem to mirror this optimism.

 

Seven in 10 respondents from African countries, including Nigeria and Ghana, were confident their governments were creating effective means of tackling corruption and promoting good governance, according to a survey released in early December by anticorruption watchdog Transparency International and polling agency Gallup .

 

However, African governments will require civil society groups that are willing to engage constructively and call for reform if good governance is to be secured in the long term.

 

The success of campaigns to broaden antiretroviral drug distribution in SA and to block constitutional reform allowing a presidential third term in Zambia provide potent cases in point. In both instances, policy reform heavily rested on citizens' willingness to challenge government policy and call for better governance.

 

Furthermore, as some foreign investors pay less attention to democratic records, African leaders may need to be slightly sceptical of the long-term sustainability of such investment. For their own sakes, African governments need to reinforce existing efforts to improve governance in the absence of foreign investor incentives to comply.

 

On balance, a clear trend towards better governance is detectable. Let us hope that in the new year this trend will continue.

 

From Business Day, Johannesburg, posted on AllAfrica.Com 

Nigeria in 2007: The Best and The Worst This Day

 

S’Court: Deepening Democracy

Nigeria’s current romance with democracy is often dubbed “fledgling” partly because of the way previous experiments were abridged unceremoniously by the military. However, since the return to the democratic form of government in 1999, the Supreme Court of Nigeria has emerged as the foremost stabiliser of constitutionalism. From its role as arbiter in disputes involving the Federal Government and the states, both political parties and individuals have taken recourse to the highest court in the land to steady the course of democracy.  Not only has the Supreme Court’s intervention deepened democracy in the country, it has given vent to the popular view that the judiciary is the last hope of the common man. It came out boldly to reverse the unconstitutional impeachments that swept away democratically elected governors with the backing of the Obasanjo presidency. In the wake of the crisis of confidence that trailed the conduct of the 2007 general elections, it was the legendary Supreme Court that came to the rescue of the cheated in the whole exercise. The conduct of the elections at all was due to the progressive posture of the court. Two landmark pronouncements on Anambra and Rivers states stand out and this has helped a great deal in stabilising the states, which hitherto stood on what could be termed political precipice.

 

Ribadu: The Relentless Warrior

Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, the Executive Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is a tall man with a lion’s heart. What Ribadu has in height, he also has in guts. Since he was given the EFCC top job in 2003 by ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, not a few critics have berated him for being a lackey of the former egoistic president. The lawless tactics of the anti-graft agency justified the critics. This was further corroborated by the way Obasanjo even threatened publicly to set the EFCC goons after some perceived enemies.

 

Ribadu was accused of being selective and not following due process and rule of law. However, with the departure of Obasanjo, Ribadu has continued to pursue the anti-graft war with the same zeal. Most of the accusations against Ribadu today are carry-overs from the Obasanjo administration. This time around, the commission carries out its duties with all the trappings of the rule of law in consonance with the Yar’Adua administration’s slogan. Not again will any public official dip his hands into the public till with impunity, no matter how highly placed.

 

Ribadu’s leadership eloquently spoke for him when President George Bush of the United States commended the commission for its fight against money laundering, especially as it relates to drug trafficking. Many former governors have now been interrogated. Many are on trial and many more are slated for trial. The extent of the work done by the commission under Ribadu’s watch has shown in the quality of the cases they have against corrupt ex-governors, 419 kingpins and other financial criminals.

 

OTUDEKO: NSE GROWS AND GROWS

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) witnessed monumental growth last year and the outlook only looks brighter and brighter with the influx of private foreign investment on the stock exchange. President of NSE, Oba Otudeko, could not have wished for a better result as the exchange, under the leadership of the DG and Chief Executive, Dr Ndidi Onyiuke-Okereke has become a phenomenon with unprecedented trading activities and returns on investment which are rated as the highest in the world. Foreigners now have over $5 billion in investment in the market. The market closed yesterday at a record N10.18 trillion. Considering that it opened at N4.3 trillion at the beginning of 2007, this is monumental.

 

BEST IDEA: YAR’ADUA’S RULE OF LAW

In outward looks, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, the Nigerian president, appears so benign to hurt a fly. When he talks, he does so with caution. When he moves, he walks with measured steps. During the campaigns leading to the April 21, 2007 presidential elections following which he emerged President, he positioned himself as a man of few words. While others promised heaven and earth to lure voters, he spoke little but frankly. He was also cautious not to use abusive language on his opponents.

 

While Yar’Adua’s peaceful and gentle mien appears to be a vital disarming tool in possession of the president, his emphasis on the rule of law policy has so far turned out the most distinguishing idea and trait of his era. The administration of President Yar’Adua took over the reins of Nigerian government from the regime of former President Olusegun Obasanjo about seven months back, on May 29, 2007 and immediately began singing the mantra of rule of law.
By this idea, Yar’Adua insists that whoever has or is perceived to have committed an offence should be painstakingly prosecuted and punished in accordance with the dictates of the constitution and the laws of the country rather than according to the whims and caprices of one person or group of persons. The principle of rule of law under Yar’Adua stipulates that due process must be followed in the arrest, charge and trial of suspected violators of the laws of the land.

 

ADICHIE: BREATH OF FRESH AIR

Professors Wole Soyinka, Chinua Achebe and the late Cyprian Ekwensi were among the glorious generation that blazed the trail by putting Nigeria’s name on the global literary map. That was in the 1960s. The Biafran secessionist war of 1967 to 1970 which threatened the fabric of Nigeria’s unity to the hilt seemed to have extinguished that early flame of literary adventure by Nigerian authors. After the internecine war which left in its trail horrific scenes that shook the world to stupor, a long interregnum ensued. Many thought it was all over for Nigerian novelists and authors. But like a comet from the land of the rising sun, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie emerged to renew Nigeria’s presence on the global literary scene. The appreciative world reciprocated by heralding the birth of the new face of Nigerian literature. Chimamanda’s second novel, Half of a Yellow Sun published in 2006 was the revolutionary classic that turned the tide. It won the prestigious 2007 Orange Prize for Fiction.

 

The worst...

 

Iwu: disastrous Umpire

Maurice Mmaduakolam Iwu, a Professor of Pharmacognosy and chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has been described as a failure, incompetent and a disgrace to Nigeria. Nigerians and foreigners who described him with these words have their genuine reasons. INEC,  under the leadership of Iwu, conducted the worst elections in the history of Nigeria. Worse still, instead of accepting his shortcomings, he goes about with arrogance claiming that the elections he conducted were credible. He even went on an image-laundering tour of the world to press his bad case.

 

First, Iwu promised the provision of collapsible polling booths across the country but there was no such booth in all the polling centres, even though there were no elections in many parts of the country. There were also promises of “direct capture machine” which were invisible. He has never come out to explain what happened or what went wrong. Iwu simply allowed himself to be manipulated by the ruling PDP during the election which was condemned by both local and international election observers. All the money that was invested in technology to make announcement of results faster came to nought, same with the famed creation of warehouse in six geo-political zones for faster and easier distribution of election materials. A “learned” man, Iwu in his job as the Chairman of INEC, whose sole mandate is to organise and conduct elections, decided to play the role of the nation’s judiciary. For some bizarre reasons, he conferred on himself the power to determine who can run for an elective post and who cannot.

 

Adedibu: A Caged Godfather

 

Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu, the famed strongman of Ibadan politics, presents an awesome study for students of political science. His brand of politics, sometimes derided as "cash and carry" or "Amala politics" by his detractors, some say, deserves better understanding and appreciation because it has an embedded lesson for the majority of Nigerian politicians. Adedibu has been around for a long time and learnt at the feet of Chief Adegoke Adelabu, a man described as the “stormy petrel" of Ibadan politics, seminally brilliant and charismatic and sagacious populist in the 1950s.  Adedibu is a man who on  on many occasions threw caution and decorum to the winds during several elections in Oyo State. The strongman of Ibadan politics many occasions stepped beyond his bounds and became law onto himself, while the former president  Olusegun Obasanjo’ Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)-led government turned its eye the other side as the man unleashed terror in the ancient city of Ibadan. He chased out former Governor of Oyo State, Rashidi Ladoja, from government house with the connivance of the State House of Assembly through questionable impeachment. Adedibu played on the collective intelligence of Nigerians when he stated that he already has a personal knowledge of who the next president of Nigeria is come 2007. A few weeks after he was described by Obasanjo as the father of PDP, Adedibu was arrested, tried by the lower court in Abuja and was granted bail for planning public disorder and constituting a threat to public decorum.

 

Etteh: Patricia Who?

 

She was an obscure member of the House of Representative, representing the Ikirun Federal Constituency in Osun State. During her first tenure in the house, Hon. Patricia Olubunmi Etteh, a mother of two, was to many a bench warmer as nothing much was heard about her. No wonder when she emerged as the Speaker of the lower chamber, many were asking: “Patricia who?” When she finally emerged as the Speaker, she made various promises and took house decisions that wormed her to her fellow legislators and Nigerians in general. While this was being done, she got herself entangled in a house refurbishing scandal involving over N585m. Her deputy, Babangida Ngoroje, was not also speared in the scandal that rocked the house to its foundation as Nigerians watched in awe.

After about one month of standstill, sanity appears to come the way of the Federal House of Representatives as Speaker Olubunmi Etteh stepped down as speaker. With the development on Tuesday October 30 2007, Etteh, who had made history as first female speaker, also became the first woman in that capacity to be forced out of office. Her refusal to step aside as the speaker of the House created various rows on the floor of the house leading to the death of a member. She was criticised for not showing any remorse of what offence she was alleged to have committed or even on the death of the member of the house who was her staunch supporter. The rage that went on prevented the presentation of the proposed 2008 budget by the Presidency, and this impacted on the date of passage of the appropriation bill, and by extension, on its eventual performance.

While the debate and the discourse of the scandal continued, Etteh became a national irritant and a sore thumb, even to her party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. This was exemplified in the manner her party made a detour in her continued defence following her legislative gaffe in one of the sittings. Her action threw the party into an unexpected frenzy as it had to hurriedly rally its caucus in the House to douse the anger of aggrieved legislators who had vowed to convene sitting the next day, in reaction to the unparliamentarily manner she achieved an adjournment.

 

AONDOAKAA: WORST EXPONENT OF RULE OF LAW

 

Through his utterances and actions, the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice, Mr. Michael Kaase Aondoaka,a in the past six months of his tenure appears to have been muddling issues more than he is elucidating them especially as they pertain to the fight against corruption and the policy of rule of law. His comments about the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) have been the most disturbing, particularly those interested in the war against corruption which presently seems to have been clogged at last. Aondoakaa is one minister in the cabinet of Yar'Adua, whose appointment, personality and actions have been trailed by controversies of monumental proportion. Barely hours after his inauguration, he stirred the hornet’s nest when he wrote Yar’Adua imploring him to cede prosecutorial powers to his office as against the hitherto idea of independent prosecution by anti-graft agencies. The request which received instant endorsement by the President, generated hues in the polity, culminating in its quick reversal within 24 hours by the President. He has been amateurish in his handling of the very sensitive portfolio.

From This Day (Lagos)

 

 

South Africa: Year in Review 2007

 

SUMMARY:

The old Chinese curse declaims “May you live in interesting times.” Times are always interesting in South Africa, and 2007 proved to be one of the most interesting years of all.

 

In South Africa everything is political and politics seems to be everything. In 1999 Nelson Mandela yielded control of the ANC and thus the country’s political leadership to Thabo Mbeki. No such smooth transition is underway in 2007 as Mbeki attempts to hold on to the party leadership (while still claiming that he plans to give up the country’s presidency) against a challenge from his former Vice President, Jacob Zuma. A year ago Zuma was dogged by rape and corruption allegations that made his ascension to the country’s top political post seem laughable. Today Zuma appears to be the favorite to take over the ANC’s top spot at the ANC’s national conference to be held in Polokwane in the middle of December. But given that the country’s next national election is not scheduled to be held until 2009 much can change, and the next year is likely to see an increase in political tensions that are already snare-drum tight. No matter what happens the Zuma-Mbeki cage match will only intensify.

 

South Africa’s 2007 was not all solipsistic naval gazing, however. The country continued to wrestle with its role in continental affairs, treading the fine line between being the region’s clear power and wanting to avoid being its schoolyard bully. nowhere was this fraught role more clearly illustrated than in its dealings with megolomaniacal Robert Mugabe and the crisis Mugabe has wrought in Zimbabwe. South Africa’s silent diplomacy with Mugabe was clearly deficient and so Mbeki accepted the Southern African Development Community’s  (SADC) charge to mediate the conflicts between Mugabe and the opposition groups he has for so long terrorized. Those negotiations thus far have not yielded many fruits either. For all of the criticisms of Mbeki and South Africa, however, few have proposed a viable course of action to take against Zimbabwe’s Big Man.

 

Sport in South Africa is not politics or global relations. Sport is far more important than that. The biggest sports story, indeed, arguably the biggest non-political story in South Africa in 2007, was the Springbok victory over all comers in the World Cup of Rugby held in France. But the victory did not come without its own political infighting. Before the World Cup the ubiquitous question of the team’s racial makeup threatened to derail an emphasis on the games. Then after the team’s heroic exploits, with Bryan Habana leading the way as international player of the year, Springbok coach Jake White resigned, leading to recrimination, finger pointing, and the sort of sporting chaos with which South Africans are so familiar. 

 

Most Critical Event:

Hands down the most critical event in South Africa in 2007 is yet to come, and that is the ANC conference in Polokwane that is scheduled to kick off in ten days. With more than a year to go before the election there is plenty of room for machinations, politicking, intrigue, and chaos. If Jacob Zuma emerges victorious from the conference all it might take would be for the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) to pursue corruption charges against Zuma and his road to succeed Mbeki will find a huge road block before it. Nonetheless the Polokwane meeting will likely reveal a great deal about the schisms in South African politics, which in so many ways reflect the divisions in South African society as a whole.

 

Most Influential Person:

Could it be anyone other than Thabo Mbeki? Mbeki is almost inarguably the most important figure in the post-Mandela era, and in many ways, beyond Mendela’s symbolic force and moral stature, Mbeki may be the most important figure in South African history since 1994. earlier this year at dcat I wrote the following:

Thabo Mbeki is a fascinating figure if for no other reason than that he is not Nelson Mandela. South Africa has gone through a successful transition from apartheid to resistance leadership. Though Mbeki was every bit a resistance figure himself, albeit in exile in England and thus without the romance attached to Mandela’s “Robben Island University” cohort, in many ways he is the country’s first post-resistance leader. Mandela’s brilliant move to serve just one term, instantly bequesting unto his nation yet another gift, a rejection of the Big Man that has so terrorized much of the rest of the continent, proved a dual-edged sword for Mbeki. For Mbeki is not a God among men.

Mbeki reminds me a bit of Harry S. Truman in some small (and merely suggestive) ways. While not the humble, plain-spoken sort that Truman was, and while he operates in a vastly different context of history and his nation’s political development, Mbeki nonetheless shares one thing in common with the man from Missouri: Both operate(d) under a shadow. FDR’s shadow, as William Leuchtenburg and Alonzo Hamby have both so ably shown, was so overwhelming that it provided the prevailing paradigm under which American politicians operated for half a century. Mandela’s shadow might prove to be even more lasting. Shadows of Gods tend to be. One wonders if, also like Truman, Mbeki will be more appreciated by historians than he is by many of the intelligentsia today. Certainly Mbeki is more popular than Truman was throughout most of his tenure, but at the same time, South African politics are dramatically different than those under which Truman operated in the 1940s. Nonetheless, both men were almost destined to look smaller than their predecessor. Truman emerged to become a significant historical figure in his own right. Might Mbeki end up playing a similar historical role?

 

Jacob Zuma notwithstanding, expect Mbeki to occupy this spot in 2008 as well. Respect him or hate him (and in South Africa today those seem like the only two options) Mbeki is the figure who defines South African politics even if only so that people can define themselves against him.

 

(Honorable Mention: Jacob Zuma)

 

Most Influential Company:

Surely no company, parastatal or otherwise, played as a visible and controversial a role in South Africa in 2007 as the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC). the state’s most respected journalistic arm or the government’s mouthpiece? Voice for the people or feckless apologist for the state? Whichever side one takes there is no doubting that on a day-to-day basis the SABC plays a larger role in South African lives than any other. But the fact that the SABC solons seem so willing to acquiesce to the demands of the ANC is disquieting for those committed to a truly free press in not only South, but also throughout Southern Africa.

 

Most Influential (Or arguably Most important) Organization:

If not the country’s most “influential” organization, (not as crucial as the ANC, for example) South Africa’s Local Organizing Committee for the 2010 FIFA World Cup is still crucial. Not only is the LOC responsible for organizing the logistics of the World Cup, a daunting enough challenge, it also is responsible for presenting South Africa to the world. Crime, AIDS, transportation, infrastructure, and myriad other considerations have become the concern of the LOC. Hopefully they will address these issues in ways that will have longstanding benefits to South Africa and not just serve as a temporary palliative for the succor of tourists flush with cash and desirous of seeing a Potemkin Africa.

 

Most Unexpected Development:

Could it be anything other than the Phoenix-like rise of Jacob Zuma? Accused of rape and a gaggle of corruption charges, Zuma fell out of favor with Thabo Mbeki and found himself effectively shunned and marginalized not only from Mbeki but from the ANC power nexus. But the very act of being set aside allowed for Mbeki’s agonistes to pull Zuma closer. Not surprisingly, many of those who were inlined to embrace Zuma came from the COSATU/SACP wing of the  tripartite ANC alliance, which had long sought to find a way to chellenge the party hierarchy from the left. Whether Zuma is otherwise the ideal candidate to pose that challenge from the left is another question, but his opportunism is just another element of what makes his re-emergence at the center of the country’s politics so surprising, and in its way compelling. Few in June would have predicted that Zuma would enter the Polokwane conference as the favorite to take over the party’s mantle of leadership. 

 

Best Books:

Two books published late in the year represent arguably the finest books on, about, or from South Africa in 2007. Mark Gevisser’s new biography, Thabo Mbeki: The Dream Deferred and Martin Meredith’s Diamonds, Gold, and War: The British, the Boers and the Making of South Africa represent vitally important contributions that provide insight into the South Africa present through explorations of the South African past. These represent not only good books, but also important books that deserve a wide audience.

 

Most Important Foreign Affairs Issue:

While the ongoing crisis in Darfur has rightfully chagrined the world (rhetorically; that chagrin has not yet translated into action, talk being easier and cheaper than action) and has been important to South Africa’s foreign policy agenda, the nightmare across the Limpopo River in Zimbabwe has occupied most of South Africa’s foreign policy energies. Few have posited a viable solution to the problems Robert Mugabe (Biggest Thorn in South Africa’s Side) poses, which has rarely stopped critics from condemning perceived South African inaction. Such is the dilemma of being the region’s lone superpower. 

 

Most Important Domestic Issue:

Beyond simply “politics,” the most important domestic issues in South Africa are the same as they were in 2000, which almost undoubtedly wil be the central domestic crises of 2010: Crime and Hiv/AIDS. Both seem intractable. Both are easy to condemn, but those who engage in the condemnation never have viable solutions. Both threaten the country’s stability, prosperity, and long-range future. Both are a function of both poverty but are also the result of willful concrete behavior. And both appear to have been exacerbated by inaction and malpractice on the part of the ruling party.

 

Best Display of Global Dominance:

I had to sneak the Springboks in here somewhere. For sports fans South Africa always seems to fall short, landing in the good but not good enough category, which tends to frustrate the country’s fans, who like nothing more than to overrate then complain about the local teams. The Proteas fell short in the cricket World Cup. Last year Bafana Bafana did not even make the World Cup finals. But this year’s Springboks managed to live up to the heavy burden South Africans placed upon them. Of course the issue of race never disappears in any element of South African society, never mind in a program so fraught with its racial past as rugby. And the Jake White situation is frankly unseemly and galling. But in the end, Amobokoboko triumphed on the pitch when it counted, and their victory over England added a new chapter to Springbok lore. Nothing can ever match 1995 for historical significance, symbolic resonance, or inspiration. But the 2007 squad was a truly great one that deserved the world championship. The good feelings should last all the way until their first international test series in 2008. 

 

Predictions for 2008:

Predictions are a fool’s errand. They are rarely right, except when they are intentionally vague in the manner of astrological readings that create the conditions for almost anything to be interpreted as being accurate.

 

That said, here are some educated guesses as to what South Africa has in store for the next year:

 

Whatever happens at Polokwane will not prove to be the final arbiter in the ANC struggle for power. Zuma’s struggles are just beginning. And there is always the hope for a third way to emerge. Don’t be surprised if Tokyo Sexwale or Cyril Ramaphosa have something to say with how things play out. And if Mandela weighs in, all bets are off.

 

If Robert Mugabe dies, or something happens to make him yield power, the vacuum that emerges will lead to tremendous instability. As with most tyrants, Mugabe has not done anything seriously to pave the way for his successor. The fact that the Movement for Democratic Change is divided will only fuel instability. Thabo Mbeki needs to work to pave the way for the transition even if he is unwilling to force Mugabe’s hand. But it would be nice if Mbeki could find a way to force Mugabe’s hand.

 

The Springbok honeymoon will be brief, if it is not over already. The White situation is representative of a larger schism within the rugby leadership. And the conflicted views of racial representation on the Springbok squad will only exacerbate the void. Expect Allister Coetzee to gain traction as a possible White replacement. Coetzee would be the first black Springbok coach.

 

FIFA will continue to hold Damocles’ sword over South Africa’s head in the form of threatening to move the World Cup elsewhere. By the end of the year FIFA will claim that South Africa is on pace to host a successful world championship tournament. Their endorsement will not sound especially convincing. And yet it will be largely accurate. One will suspect that a European nation would not face such scrutiny.  

 

The NPA will reinstate corruption charges against Jacob Zuma. Chaos will continue to characterize South African politics. This will be a boon to guys who write about South African politics such as yours truly.    

 

From Foreign Policy Association South Africa    

 

 

Conciliation versus conflict in Egypt Al-Ahram

 

Al-Ahram Weekly reviews the headline-grabbing stories of 2007 and assesses the ways in which they will impact on 2008

Is the domestic turmoil of the last year an inevitable harbinger of reform or does it signal regression? Certainly any overview of the past 12 months could not help but stress how the nation has become seemingly more divided as the government and the ruling National Democratic Party appeared intent on pursuing their own agenda, with or without the consent of opposition forces, introducing changes, not least an overhaul of the constitution, that will shape political life for years to come. Then there was the phenomenon of ordinary members of the public, professionals and workers alike, taking to the streets in unprecedented numbers to demand that the government act to alleviate the problems they face at a time when inflation is rising while salaries remain as low as ever. Cautious against the fallout of mass protests, the regime adopted a softly-softly approach to industrial action, acceding to many of the strikers' demands.

 

Changes to the constitution removed all references to socialism as well as paving the way for the replacement of emergency laws by anti-terror legislation. They also eliminated full judicial supervision of elections, opening the door to opposition charges that they will facilitate vote rigging, and made it virtually impossible for opposition parties to field a presidential candidate.

 

The Muslim Brotherhood faced a major crackdown when the state arrested several senior figures, including businessmen accused of financing the activities of the banned group. Undeterred, the group announced its intention to establish a political party. Meanwhile, officially recognised opposition parties were increasingly mired in internecine struggles that paralysed them as an effective political force.

 

Bending to the storm

 

FOR THE LAST 12 months Egyptian foreign policy has been circumscribed by attempts to navigate a course through a series of political storms that has left the Middle East more unstable than ever. Towards the middle of the year, in June, Egypt woke to a summer squall as bloody Palestinian in-fighting escalated in Gaza and ended with the Hamas take over of the economically devastated and politically agitated strip that lies on Egypt's eastern border.

 

The Hamas take-over was the nail in the coffin of Egyptian -- and to a lesser extent Saudi -- attempts to mediate in the bitter dispute between Fatah and Hamas. It announced the failure of Cairo's attempts to promote the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority, chaired by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, as an effective, "moderate" alternative to "radical" Hamas.

 

Egypt's security/intelligence delegation pulled out of Gaza but the cold shoulder policy, together with measured humanitarian assistance, failed to have any impact on Hamas even as its military victory turned into stifling political isolation and the UN and other humanitarian organisations began to warn of a potentially devastating humanitarian crisis.

 

Then, as the year ground to a close, came the failure of the Annapolis conference, intended to offer a "moderate" bolthole -- for the region and not just Gaza -- and provide shelter from the weakened but undefeated storm of Hamas and its allies Iran, Syria and Hizbullah.

 

The fate of Annapolis -- where the Israelis offered nothing, and certainly not a freeze on settlement activities, to the inexplicably optimistic Arab delegations that attended under the Arab League banner -- echoed the failure of another Washington-inspired initiative to promote "moderation" at the beginning of the year, the Dialogue Mechanism 6+2+1. The coalition brought together the US, Egypt, Jordan and the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain) in an attempt to counterbalance the growing regional influence of Iran which, in the face of the miserable US failure in Iraq, has been growing exponentially. Though the 6+2+1 grouping struggles on, it failed even to promote calls for moderation in Lebanon, where a year-long political crisis between the government of Fouad Al-Siniora, supposedly a hero of moderation, and the political opposition headed by one of the uncontested leaders of "radicalism" in Middle East -- Hizbullah's Hassan Nasrallah -- continues unabated.

 

Lebanon's political crisis proved too tough for the mediation not just of Egypt, which has for long played a hands-off approach towards this file, but for the efforts of French diplomacy and the shrewd political tact of Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa.

 

In the closing days of 2007, Lebanon's "radical" camp had not only withstood the collective support offered to the Al-Siniora government by Egypt, other Arab moderates, including the secretariat of the Arab League, France and the US, the Al-Siniora camp itself seemed to show signs of implosion as calls emerged from within that it should move to accommodate the influence of Hizbullah.

 

In attempting to face up to the storm of radicalisation -- as perceived in Cairo -- Egyptian diplomacy was attempting to promote the nation's basic interests by preventing the Islamisation of politics in the Arab world, the fear being that this would compound Iranian political expansion.

 

Cairo is not alone among Arab capitals in being apprehensive over the change in Washington's tone towards Tehran, especially as manifested in the recent Gulf security conference that convened earlier this month in Bahrain. Egypt has also been cautious over Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's calls earlier in the year, and repeated this month, to normalise diplomatic relations between Iran and Egypt severed three-decades ago.

 

The shadow of Iran has also fallen across Egyptian-Syrian relations, which reached a particularly low ebb in 2007 following the pact that Damascus struck with Tehran.

 

Egypt's battle against "radicalism" is likely to continue into next year, though tactics and fronts may change. Cairo's support of moderate allies will continue, complemented by efforts to win new friends, particularly to the east. Syria, the expected chair of the next regular Arab summit in March 2008, is likely to be the subject of intense diplomatic engagement.

 

Dina Ezzat

Grassroots action pays off

 

"This year the hajj was different because the Egyptian people are different," wrote Ibrahim Eissa, outspoken editor of the independent Al-Dostour daily, on the paper's front page Sunday. "The people are fed up," he added.

 

Eissa was alluding to the unprecedented sit-in by Egyptian hajj pilgrims in Mina, Saudi Arabia. Their hajj had turned into a nightmare. Stuffed in overcrowded tents surrounded by piles of garbage and raw sewage many of the pilgrims missed hajj rituals and place the blame for their miserable experience squarely on the shoulders of the official Egyptian delegation responsible for overseeing the logistics of the pilgrimage.

 

By Friday, the last day of hajj, hundreds of Egyptian pilgrims had done the unthinkable. They surrounded Egyptian diplomats in their cars and wouldn't let them out in protest against the "inhuman" conditions they were suffering. Others filed group complaints with the Saudi Hajj Ministry.

 

Egyptian protests in this most unlikely of places provided a perfect final act for 2007, 12 months that the pundits have variously dubbed the year of civil disobedience, of intifadas or popular awakening.

 

In a rare consensus columnists in the state-run and opposition press alike agree that the year has been one of grassroots action, with strikes, sit-ins and protests announcing the arrival of street power as people take fate into their own hands.

 

In 2006 there were 220 protest actions across Egypt. According to the Land Centre for Human Rights (LCHR), a non-governmental organisation, there had been 283 mass actions in the first six months of 2007.

 

"The hajj protests," wrote Eissa, "are an extension of the strikes and protests that have spread across Egypt. They are a sign that the threshold of tolerance of Egyptians was passed long ago."

 

In the daily Al-Masry Al-Yom, sociologist Saadeddin Ibrahim published a column on how "2007 brought a new spirit of spontaneous readiness for peaceful confrontation with the authorities". In Al-Ahram daily Hazem Abdel-Rahman found in the year's protests "cause for optimism", arguing that they could well mark the beginning of a new era in which dissatisfied citizens demand their rights and the authorities, which in the past turned a blind eye to abuses, are forced to respond positively.

 

According to LCHR, the majority of industrial action took place in the public sector as workers demanded financial rights.

 

The year began with the 27,000 strong strikes that broke out in December 2006 at the Misr Spinning and Weaving Company complex in Al-Mahala Al-Kubra. During the Mahala strikes workers occupied not only the factory but adjacent streets. Thousands of riot police were deployed but remained unwilling to confront the workers who called off the sit-in only when their demands were met. It was a success that inspired textile workers elsewhere to adopt similar tactics. By February 4,200 employees at the Misr Shebin Al-Kom Spinning and Weaving Company (SSWC) in the Delta had stopped work to protest against the company's seven month delay in the payment of bonuses.

 

In the capital, workers at the Cairo Poultry Company staged a two-day strike over long delayed bonus payments while at the Mansoura-Spain Company employees embarked on an open-ended hunger strike after salaries were not paid.

 

In almost every confrontation between workers and the state the government has backed down and acceded to the workers' demands.

 

The impact of the Mahala strikes extended beyond the textile sector. Train drivers on the Alexandria-Cairo route began their own action to demand better wages and conditions, and were soon joined by Metro drivers in Cairo who started a go-slow in solidarity. In April, workers at flourmills struck forcing the government to abandon plans to cut daily wheat quotas that would have reduced the workers' bonuses by 35 per cent.

 

On 1 April, employees at the state-owned Egyptian Company for Dairy Products in Mansoura staged a sit-in to protest at plans to merge the company with two others. The plan, they said, was part of a strategy to reduce benefits and lay off more workers. In Tibeen 200 workers at the Arab Sand-Brick Company extended their 12-day strike in protest against plans to liquidate the company. They were joined by 284 Mansoura-Espa--a Company workers, who began a sit-in on 21 April within the factory grounds. Among their demands was the payment of bonuses owed since 1999.

 

Textiles comprise Egypt's largest industrial sector and its employees are among the world's worst paid. In addition to rock bottom salaries employees across the industrial sector face appallingly dangerous working conditions.

 

By the end of May, discontent had spread beyond the Nile Valley to the Sinai Peninsula as hundreds of Bedouins staged a sit-in near Arish following the killing of two Bedouins by police. After four days a deal was struck between tribal sheikhs and the Egyptian authorities involving the release of Bedouin prisoners jailed without charge, many of whom had been incarcerated since the Taba bombings.

 

Industrial action was hitting the headlines once again when, in May, workers in factory after factory escalated their actions to back demands relating to pay, unpaid bonuses and profit-sharing schemes their managements wanted to ignore.

 

In September, workers at the textile and weaving company Ghazl Al-Mahala began one of the largest industrial protests of the last two decades. Some 27,000 workers again downed tools, continuing the action they had started in December of the previous year. Police forces surrounded the factory only to withdraw, fearing any direct confrontation with the workers.

 

The workers' demands included the payment of overdue bonuses, an increase in basic pay and basic medical services and transport facilities. They also insisted that board chairman Mahmoud El-Gibali be suspended pending investigation into the alleged misuse of funds, and that union officials attached to the state-controlled General Federation of Trade Unions be impeached.

 

As the protest continued, demands turned from worker-related grievances to denunciations of the government and calls were made for President Hosni Mubarak to intervene. The strikers carried coffins bearing the names of senior managers as well as Minister of Investment Mahmoud Mohieldin. A week later the government finally backed down and agreed to the Mahala workers' demands.

 

In addition to bread and butter issues the workers have formulated other, more political demands, the most important of which is the call for independent labour unions.

 

September witnessed more tensions between Sinai residents and the police with protests turning into a fully fledged riot as government offices and infrastructure were targeted. While calm was soon restored the underlying problems between the Bedouin and the authorities -- now clearly visible if unresolved -- are set to spill over into 2008.

 

Encouraged by the success of workers, university teachers began their own action in November to protest against poor salaries and the security forces' intervention on campuses. On 5 November, 150 university professors stood for an hour in a symbolic gesture mourning the lost dignity of their profession.

 

Meanwhile, property tax workers, who began industrial action in September, upped the ante. An estimated 9,000 tax workers from across the country gathered in Cairo early December as part of their campaign to secure parity with employees doing similar jobs on the Ministry of Finance's payroll who earn up to 10 times more. When officials continued to ignore them the strikers decided to "sit-in" in front of the cabinet building in downtown Cairo, refusing to go home unless their demands were met. Ten days later the workers brokered a deal with Minister of Finance Youssef Boutros Ghali who agreed to begin implementing the strikers' demands beginning next month. If they don't receive their bonuses, the workers say they'll be back in the same place with even more determination on 9 January 2008.

 

Constitutional change

 

IN A SPEECH before the People's Assembly on 19 November 2006, President Hosni Mubarak made it clear that 2007 would see "the widest range of constitutional amendments since 1980".

 

Slightly more than a month later, on 26 December 2006, Mubarak called for 34 articles of the constitution to be amended. On 19 March 2007, after just two days of debate in the People's Assembly the amendments were approved, leading to opposition charges that the National Democratic Party (NDP) had used its parliamentary majority to steamroll and rubberstamp changes. One week later, on 26 March, the amendments were approved by public referendum. According to the Supreme Election Committee, 75.9 per cent of registered voters approved the amendments, a figure disputed by independent observers.

 

The amendments dominated public debate through most of the year, polarising the political scene into proponents and opponents of the changes. The NDP and its Policies Committee, led by President Mubarak's son Gamal, hailed the amendments -- which rid the constitution of all mention of socialism and asserted that Egypt's political system would henceforth be based on democratic principles of citizenship -- as a milestone in the process of political reform. Parties based on religion were banned, and the process of nominating presidential candidates was made much easier, at least in theory. They presented the amendments as curtailing presidential powers in favour of the cabinet and parliament, and paved the way for the abrogation of the 26-year-old emergency laws and their replacement by anti-terror legislation.

 

Opponents of the changes slammed them as a major setback, arguing that Mubarak's reforms were little more than an attempt at window dressing. Opposition and independent groups were most concerned with changes to articles 88 and 179. Amendments to Article 88 eliminated judicial supervision of elections, opening the door to the possibility of increased electoral fraud -- while changes to Article 179, it was alleged, threatened to turn Egypt into a police state under the pretext of fighting terrorism. As far as making it easier for presidential candidates to run, the opposition pointed out that the stipulations placed on qualifying candidates made it all but impossible for the opposition parties, let alone the Muslim Brotherhood, to field nominees. The changes, they charged, appeared to have been tailored to bring Gamal Mubarak closer to inheriting power from his father and establishing a new political dynasty.

 

Local and international civil society organisations joined political groups in criticising amendments that they characterised as an attempt to further consolidate the NDP's monopoly of political life and underwrite the autocratic rule of President Mubarak. The 26 March referendum approving the amendments was, they said, marred by massive vote rigging, a signal of the regime's disdain for due democratic reforms.

 

Mid-term elections for the consultative Shura Council on 11 June were, claimed the opposition, equally marred by interventions in favour of the NDP. Indeed, the Muslim Brotherhood and opposition candidates won a single seat between them.

 

Following the constitutional amendments, the People's Assembly is now preparing a raft of highly contentious laws. Moufid Shehab, minister of state for parliamentary affairs, has announced that a host of political and economic laws must now be revised to conform with the amended constitution.

 

The most contentious piece of new legislation is likely to be the anti-terror bill. The opposition now fears that the bill will be even more draconian than the emergency laws, allowing the police unprecedented powers to detain citizens on suspicion of involvement in terrorist crimes and then refer them to a court of their own choosing, including military tribunals.

 

The assembly is also scheduled to discuss legislation that will further restrict the holding of public demonstrations inside or around places of worship, and laws that alter judicial supervision, placing all branches of the judiciary under a single council headed by the president of the republic.

 

Economic legislations will also be reviewed, and the 36-year-old on office of the prosecutor-general eliminated. According to Shehab, this is a necessary extension of moves to rid Egypt of its socialist heritage.

 

Municipal elections are due in April 2008. The NDP, say political commentators, will win a vast majority of seats thanks in no small part to the constitutional changes of 2007.

 

Gamal Essam El-Din

A truce within the NDP

 

THE NINTH congress of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) held in November received massive press coverage. Held under the slogan "With us, Egypt moves forward", the congress saw the continued rise of Gamal Mubarak, the 44-year-old son of President Hosni Mubarak, who was once again thrust into the limelight following his appointment to the NDP's Supreme Council from which the party's candidates for 2011 presidential election will be selected. Although the appointment did not represent a promotion it did, opposition forces argued, make him the most eligible candidate for the NDP presidential nomination. Unlike previous years, Gamal Mubarak did nothing to quash speculation about his ambitions, avoiding what had long been his standard response, that he has "neither the intention nor the desire" to ascend to the presidency.

 

In the five years since the eighth NDP congress was held under the slogan "a new way of thinking" Gamal Mubarak has accrued enormous influence, and is now regularly viewed as the NDP's number two figure. His support of economic liberalisation and cosy relationships with business tycoons have provided fuel to the opposition who have regularly portrayed him not only as chomping at the bit to inherit power from his father but as someone whose privileged background means he is out of touch with the concerns of ordinary Egyptians. A hostile press campaign took him to task for pushing Egypt too fast down the liberal economic path, a position that seemed to be reinforced by the spate of industrial unrest that was a feature of the summer.

 

Following what was quickly dubbed the summer of discontent, President Mubarak gave orders that social issues should top the agenda of the NDP's ninth congress. Ahmed El-Sayed El-Naggar, an economist with Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), told Al-Ahram Weekly that Mubarak's orders reflected concern that the simmering discontent of workers and of those on limited income would play into the hands of the opposition and dissent movements. El-Naggar argues that Mubarak remains unconvinced by his son's liberal thinking. "Hosni Mubarak has always been sensitive towards the social aspects of policy while his son and the liberal economic circle around him seem eager to promote market economy reforms regardless of the consequences."

 

Recent discrepancies in public announcements on social subsidies made by President Mubarak and the Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif reflect, says El-Naggar, a widening of differences between camps in the NDP. El-Naggar points out that no sooner had Mubarak suggested that a public dialogue over social subsidies was necessary than Gamal, Nazif, the cabinet economic team and businessmen began to backtrack on their insistence of the urgency to phase out the subsidy programme.

 

Following a meeting last week between Gamal and Nazif statements were issued saying that not only was the subsidy on bread not to be ended, but an additional LE7 billion was to be made available.

 

Some observers believe that internecine power struggles within the NDP have come to a temporary truce.

 

"Mubarak has engineered a kind of balance between his son's camp and the old guard, including the new Supreme Council," says ACPSS political analyst Amr Rabie. But he also notes that Gamal Mubarak's "men" have started "Take, for example, the case of business tycoon Ahmed Ezz who now wields a lot of influence in the NDP and parliament," says Rabie, who also points to the powers exercised by the cabinet's trio of economic team, Minister of Industry Rachid Mohamed Rachid, Minister of Finance Youssef Boutros Ghali and Minister of Investment Mahmoud Mohieldin. "This trio appears to be immune to cabinet reshuffles and one of them is expected to be the next prime minister."

 

Rabie expects that 2008 will see the NDP slow down its economic liberalisation policies while consolidating its grip on power by passing more autocratic laws, and possibly rigging the municipal elections due in April.

 

Gamal Essam El-Din

Stagnant parties

 

THE PARALYSIS that has afflicted a majority of opposition parties will continue in 2008: the seemingly endless splits within their ranks, encouraged by the government, are unlikely to end anytime soon.

 

The liberal Wafd Party's most recent woes began when party chairman Mahmoud Abaza attempted to dismiss Anwar El-Hawari as editor-in-chief of the Al-Wafd newspaper. Differences between El-Hawari and Abaza are reportedly due to the latter's interference in the editorial policy of the newspaper. El-Hawari has publicly called on Abaza to end such interference and stop fomenting discord among the newspaper's staff.

 

The Hawari-Abaza dispute came just as the party appeared to be improving its performance and regaining credibility following the year-long power struggle between Abaza and former party chairman Noaman Gomaa.

 

The leftist Tagammu Party continues to suffer from disputes between reformists and the supporters of Rifaat El-Said, Tagammu's chairman since 2004. Reformists have repeatedly threatened to oust the current leadership if it continued to refuse to distance itself from the regime. According to Abul-Ezz El-Hariri, one of El-Said's most outspoken critics in the party, El-Said's policy of rapprochement with the government has undermined the Tagammu's credibility and caused membership to haemorrhage.

 

Several deadlines have been given to El-Said to implement reforms, including a major revision of the Tagammu's relationship with the regime, to no avail. The reformists are now pinning their hopes on the party's general conference due in March when, says Tagammu politburo member, the public will be "surprised by the emergence of a completely new Tagammu".

 

Beside electing the party chairman and other senior officials, the conference is empowered to make binding recommendations to improve party performance.

 

Demands for reform are, if anything, being voiced even more forcefully within the Nasserist Party where ageing leader Diaaeddin Dawoud has been severely criticised for offering what his detractors say is blind support to the party's secretary-general Ahmed Hassan. The dispute hit the courts following internal party elections in April when the results, which saw Hassan retain his post, were questioned in several lawsuits.

 

"Nothing is going to change for the better though it could well change for the worse," says Farouk El-Ashri, Hassan's rival for the post of the secretary-general.

 

At the Ghad Party, whose former leader and presidential candidate Ayman Nour is serving a five-year prison term on charges of faking the signatures necessary to have the party licensed, the situation is even worse. Many commentators believe that a ruling, issued by the Shura Council's Political Parties Committee last August, effectively spells the death of the party. The Shura Council judged that the Ghad's former deputy chairman Moussa Mustafa Moussa, who in 2005 challenged Nour as party leader, is the legitimate chairman of the party. The ruling was subsequently upheld by the Cairo Southern Court.

 

In naming Moussa as the sole legitimate leader of the Ghad Party, the Political Parties Committee pulled the carpet from beneath the current leadership, leaving the Ghad rudderless and divided, with one camp led by Moussa and a second by Ihab El-Kholi, Nour's successor.

 

Nor has the launch of the Democratic Front Party, officially licensed last May, lived up to expectations. The party, which was greeted optimistically by political analysts, has done little to advance the cause of political reform. The party has been criticised for the absence of any organised structure or working agenda and for its inability to connect with the public. Its activities have been restricted to holding seminars and issuing statements, and its founder members have already been embroiled in acrimonious disputes which culminated with the departure of Ali El-Salmi, who submitted his resignation in October.

 

Mona El-Nahhas

From Al-Ahram Weekly

 

 

World Politics: Bloodshed, Bombshells – And New Beginnings By Katherine Butler

 

The pro-democracy uprising of 2007 was the biggest seen in Burma in 20 years

 

A fleet of dusty buses containing 800 or so men, women and children and their baggage might be the image that best summed up the most significant shift this year in the world's biggest ongoing news story. A few weeks ago, reports from Damascus confirmed that Iraqis who had fled their homeland to seek safety in Syria were preparing to return to Baghdad in a big convoy. So was there finally light at the end of the Iraqi tunnel?

 

Four-and-a-half million Iraqis have been forced from their homes by the violence unleashed by the US-led invasion and occupation, the biggest displacement of civilians in the region since the Second World War. Towards the end of the year, a reverse exodus appeared to be under way. Was this the turning point? Perhaps when the history books are written, 2007 will be identified as the year when the Iraq catastrophe, which has dragged on longer than the First World War, began to evolve into a story of hope for the civilian population.

 

It is still too early to draw this conclusion. Iraqi refugees are certainly returning to Baghdad, but this is partly because Syria and the other countries of refuge no longer want to accommodate them. And while violence in the Iraqi capital has subsided, the refugees are also going back to a segregated city: Baghdad is divided into armed sectarian camps.

 

The new calm in Baghdad is widely, and rightly, attributed to the "surge"– the dispatch of 30,000 US reinforcements announced by the Bush administration in January in an effort to regain control of Baghdad and dampen chronic levels of violence. Overseen by its US military architect, General David Petraeus, the surge became the dominant narrative about Iraq in the Western media. As a result of the extra American troops presence, violence dropped in Baghdad, but that was also because the city's Shia leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, stood down his Mehdi Army when the surge began.

 

Correspondents inside Baghdad report that the crackle of gunfire and the reverberation of bombs going off are now far less frequent – there are even attempts to get the city's electricity supply, still only running a few hours a day, switched back on fully. But the surge may simply have added up to a new stage in the war, rather than the beginning of its end. What is clear is that the political chess game accompanying the surge is still fraught with danger.

 

Four years into the US occupation, Sunni insurgents, once at the core of resisting it, in effect switched sides. This, however, had more to do with the power struggle between Shia and Sunni Muslims than with any willingness to help the Americans achieve their goals. Iraq now has an anti-al-Qa'ida Sunni militia, armed and backed by the US, but few can predict how this force will behave if and when American troops withdraw.

 

The one consolation was perhaps the belated realisation in 2007, in Washington, as elsewhere, that military solutions alone are not enough. A similar acceptance was at play in the ending of the futile British military mission in Basra. The withdrawal was largely symbolic as British forces, which never enjoyed Iraqi support, had long ceased exercising any control. Shia militias now rule Basra and the battles between them and their affiliated racketeers are about local power and access to commodities such as fuel. But the withdrawal surely reflected a pragmatic acceptance that there was no longer an effective role for the troops beyond being targets for militants.

 

In Afghanistan, the focus also fell on what Britain or its Nato allies could now hope to achieve in the war against the Taliban. Six years after the troops went in, nearly 8,000 British soldiers are still there, yet the writ of Hamid Karzai's government does not extend far beyond the capital, Kabul, and more than half the country is under Taliban control. The suicide bombings which intensified this year demonstrate that the Taliban have adopted the deadly tactics of the Iraq insurgency.

 

There were tactical victories against the Taliban – though they may turn out to be hollow – including the recapture by British and Nato forces of the strategic town of Musa Qala in Helmand province in early December. This might explain why the year ended with some detail emerging of President Hamid Karzai's contacts with Taliban leaders and Gordon Brown hinting at the prospect of dealings with the "moderate" Taliban elements coupled with a big push on aid and reconstruction instead of the previously forecast increase in troop levels.

 

The prospect of a military showdown between the US and Iran may also have receded. While the White House searchlight appeared to swivel ominously from Iraq towards Tehran and the drumbeat of bellicose talk (amid increasingly defiant rhetoric from President Ahmadinejad) drowned out diplomacy in the first half of the year, a new assessment by the US intelligence community took the wind out of the sails of those pushing for military strikes. The report declared with "high confidence" that Iran had stopped a secret nuclear weapons programme in 2003 in response to world pressure.

 

Even General Musharraf of Pakistan, who provided the international drama of the year by suspending the constitution and plunging his nation into its biggest political crisis since 1999, appeared to accept that he had no choice but to take off his military uniform. Reluctantly he has stood aside as head of the army, clearing the way for elections.

 

The mayhem in Pakistan continues to bubble beneath the surface. The constitution has been restored but whether free and fair elections can take place in the current climate remains doubtful. The violence that blighted the return of Benazir Bhutto, the disgraced former prime minister, was a stark reminder of Pakistan's political volatility, and President Musharraf's failure until now to allow secular opponents to contest the political space has only encouraged the radicalism and extremism that ultimately could consume Pakistan.

 

In the Middle East meanwhile, bloody factional fighting between Hamas and Fatah on the streets of Gaza gave us some of the most distressing images of 2007. Hamas gained de facto control of Gaza, dealing a big setback, according to one view, to dreams of Palestinian statehood. Fatah's authority is now confined to the West Bank. But the US-brokered Annapolis Mideast Summit in Maryland at least cleared the way for the first formal Israeli-Palestinian talks for seven years.

 

If 2007 brought some progress for those advocating the benefits of jaw-jaw, Burma was the depressing exception. For a few hopeful days in September, it seemed possible that a group of Buddhist monks, armed with nothing but their chants and saffron robes, might topple the hated military junta.

 

The pro-democracy uprising of 2007 was the biggest seen in Burma in 20 years. Its ingredients were memorable: monks on the streets, then tens of thousands of repressed and fearful Burmese people daring to join them on their processions to the golden pagodas of Rangoon, Mandalay and the other Burmese cities; a hated, out of touch and brutal military junta cocooned in its hideaway capital, and the country's best-known pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, put under house arrest.

 

The Saffron Revolution gripped the world as we watched, transfixed, to see if the Burmese generals could face down international appeals for restraint. Yet the Burma story as it unfolded struck perhaps one of the bleakest notes of the year. Even with the eyes of the world looking on, the regime resorted to a Tiananmen-style crushing of the prayerful rebels with batons and gunfire. According to the UN, the crackdown killed at least 31 people, with up to 4,000 arrested and 1,000 still detained. Three months on, the monasteries have been silenced and thousands of democracy activists have fled to neighbouring Thailand.

 

What the events in Burma highlighted was that street protests alone cannot undermine a dictatorship's ability to hold out. Intense external pressure from a powerfully influential force such as China, in the case of Burma, is critical. China, perhaps conscious of its own vulnerability to criticism on the eve of hosting the Olympics, did join in calls for restraint by the junta, but otherwise exerted scant pressure. Beijing's economic muscularity continues to see it pursuing its own interests around the world even at the risk of backing unsavoury regimes like the Burmese and the Sudanese.

 

The suffering in Darfur continued in 2007, with international peacekeeping efforts still ineffective, peace talks launched in Libya in October placed on hold and humanitarian aid agencies finding their access limited. Here, too, China's oil and trade interests were rightly blamed for Beijing's failure to use its huge influence over President Omar al-Bashir to stop the bloodshed. Indeed the onward march of China's trade, investment and influence in Africa, driven by its thirst for resources (a third of China's oil comes from the continent) reached the point where European Union governments sought to review the nature of their own relationship with African governments in an effort to compete.

 

In the absence of any clear breakthrough in efforts to mediate the Zimbabwe crisis, meanwhile, Robert Mugabe clung on, seeing off rivals within the ruling Zanu PF. He may even have been emboldened by the gesture politics of Gordon Brown's boycott at the Lisbon EU/Africa summit.

 

Thabo Mbeki of South Africa fought and lost his own battle with challenger Jacob Zuma for control of the ruling ANC against charges of an increasingly autocratic leadership style. In Nigeria, President Olusegun Obasanjo stepped down ahead of elections billed as the most important since independence in 1960, because they marked the first peaceful transition from one civilian ruler to another. In the event, the polls were denounced as among the most flawed in the country's history.

 

In Europe, excitement at the prospect of the first ever woman president of France reached fever pitch in the spring. But Ségolène Royal, the Socialist candidate, failed to deliver, and Sarkomania swept France instead as Chirac's nemesis, the former Interior minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, moved into the Elysée Palace.

 

The Russian love affair with Vladimir Putin showed no sign of abating, the cult around him growing all the more as the former KGB man defied the West, reviving talk of a new cold war. Mr Putin laid the ground for his own power to run on even after his second four-year term as Russian President expires next year, by endorsing his protégé Dmitry Medvedev as United Russia's presidential candidate. Tensions with the West will again be on show in coming weeks as Kosovo edges towards a declaration of independence following the failure of international efforts to broker negotiations with Serbia.

 

The end of the year saw the signing of the new Treaty of Lisbon, which papered over some deep fissures. In theory the treaty streamlines powers and decision making, and should take it a step forward in projecting its voice on the foreign stage. But for European leaders, there was dismay that Gordon Brown's Britain remained aloof and stuck on the sidelines.

From The Independent

 

 

2007: African Entertainment Year in Review

 

Everywhere you looked in 2007, African brothers and sisters were doing BIG things! Whether in the music world, fashion world, sports arena, behind and in front of the lens, or in the literature world, these Africans made 2007 their year and made us very proud (in some cases) to call ourselves AFRICAN. These were the big stories of 2007.

 

10. Oprah Winfrey opens up Leadership Academy for Girls in South Africa

Oprah Winfrey dreamt of building a first-class school to nurture, educate and turn gifted South African girls from impoverished backgrounds into the country’s future leaders. Her dream came true when the Oprah Winfrey Leadership Academy opened it’s doors on January 2nd, 2007 with the first 152 7th and 8th graders. The 28 building campus includes state of the art classrooms, computer and science laboratories, a library, a theatre, a gymnasium, sports fields, a wellness center, modern dormitory facilities and a dining hall. The curriculum includes math, natural science and technology; arts and culture; social, economic and management sciences; life orientation and leadership; and languages. All of the teachers are South African. Oprah hand picked each girl for the school. Her decision to open a school in Africa and not in her own home in the States was met with controversy from those who felt she should have started with helping kids in America. Oprah pressed on and even went to the girls aid when a scandal hit the school in November. Nothing will stop Oprah. Leaders will emerge from this academy.

 

9. Big Brother Africa 2 Scandal

Twelve Big Brother Africa 2 housemates hailed from Angola, Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe and competed for a cash prize of US$100,000 by spending up to 98 days in the 24-hour camera fitted Big Brother house, with no contact from the outside world. Scandalous live television is usually reserved for television shows from the West. Viewers watched in disbelief as a married man had sexual encounters with female contestants in the house and WON!!! What was shown on live television is nothing in comparison to what one can find online.

 

8. Madilu Systeme Passes Away

Legendary Congolese singer Madilu Systeme passed away at age 57 on Saturday, August 11 in Kinshasa. Madilu Bialu Jean was among the kingpins of the legendary TP OK Jazz band of the late Franco Luanbo Makiadi in the 1980’s. Madilu died right after being admitted at a Kinshasa hospital complaining of fatigue. Madilu who was arguably one of the best composers in DRC will be remembered for some of his compositions while with TP OK Jazz and also during his solo career. Some of these are Pesa Position while he did the lead vocals on some of the popular TP PK Jazz songs like Mamou, Non and Makambo Ezali Minene. His solo albums are “L’ Eau”, “Pouvoir”, “Bonheur”, “Tenant du Titre” and the last one “La Bonne humeur”, which was released a month before his death. Madilu Systeme was to many in Africa what Luther Vandross was to Americans. It is a great loss for African music as a whole. He has given us so many melodies to dance to and hits after to cheer up our lives. His stage performance was equally impressive as his recordings. “Le Grand Ninja” for his close fans will surely be missed, May Madilu rest in peace.

 

7. Saiko Biko Wins ESPN’s Contender 3

In a grueling, non-stop action battle, Cameroon born Sakio Bika outlasted Jaidon Codrington, scoring a TKO at 2:18 of the eighth round to win the third-season finale of “The Contender” and the $750,000 grand prize. Bika represented Cameroon at the 2000 Sydney Olympics and decided to live and train in Sydney. This strong, well built and skillful boxer has several title bouts on his CV, including for the Australian Middleweight Title and New South Wales Middleweight Title. Bika is aware of how truly lucky he is, because as he explains it, where he grew up there is no future. Bika plans to return to Cameroon as a motivational speaker and proof that if you work hard there is a future – and a bright future at that.

 

6. Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie wins Orange Prize for Fiction

Nigerian novelist Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie won the Orange Prize, one of the literary world’s top awards given to women writers, for a novel set in the 1960s Biafran civil war. Her novel, Half of a Yellow Sun had been front-runner to win the 30,000 pound ($71,038) prize for the writer, who was shortlisted for the Orange in 2004 for her debut novel The Purple Hibiscus. Half of a Yellow Sun tells the story of three characters - a poor houseboy, a glamorous woman and a shy Englishman - who are caught up in the conflict and have to run for their lives. The Orange, established in 1996, had a distinctly international flavor in 2007 with authors also shortlisted from Britain, China, India and the United States for the prize, awarded to the best book written in English by a woman over the past 12 months.

 

5. The Last King of Scotland puts Uganda on the Map

The story of Idi Amin was brought to life on the big screen by Forest Whitaker. Though the movie was released in North America in the fall of 2006, it was not released in the UK and other parts of the world till 2007. Forest Whitaker even won an academy award for his portrayal of Idi Amin in 2007. Some may not like that it is this particular story of this particular person that has made Hollywood take notice and possibly greenlight more African films, but it is a start.

 

4. Akon’s album Konvicted one of 2007’s Top Selling

Going platinum for a musician is not as easy as it used to be in today’s age of piracy and downloads. Artists don’t sell 20 million albums like back in the Michael Jackson Thriller days. Getting to 1 million in this day and age is a huge feat. Akon beat the odds and his album Konvicted has been named as one of 2007’s top selling. It comes in with 2.7 million albums sold behind Chris Daughtry and his band Daughtry which sold 3.2 million albums. Others that made the top selling list are Miley Cyrus with 2.5 million for the Hannah Montana soundtrack and Fergie with 2.4 million for her album The Dutchess. Akon has recently enjoyed winning World Music Awards and American Music Awards. He is up for some Grammy’s in 2008 and we hope he goes home with at least one.

 

3. Idris Elba’s Big Year

2007 saw hunky Idris Elba attain leading man status. He started the year off in Tyler Perry’s movie Daddy’s Little Girls along side Gabrielle Union. The movie opened on Valentine’s Day and did well at the box office. The Reaping and 28 Weeks Later were released next. Idris finished 2007 strong with roles in American Gangstar along side Denzel Washington and This Christmas with Chris Brown and Regina King. Idris has already been hard at work for movies set to be released in 2008. Among them are the movies The Human Contract, RocknRolla, Prom Night, and The No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency. Idris also made it to several lists, ours included of the hottest, sexiest, men alive.

 

2. Lucky Dube is Killed

Fans worldwide were in shock on October 18, 2007 when they heard the news that Lucky Dube had been murdered. Lucky was considered Africa’s Bob Marley. He recorded 22 albums and was South Africa’s biggest selling raggae artist. He was shot dead by carjackers. Lucky is survived by his wife and seven children. Tribute concerts have been held and continue to be held all over the world in Lucky’s honor. Lucky Dube’s music and positive spirit will forever live on.

 

1. Barack Obama Announces Presidential Candidacy

Senator Barack Hussein Obama who is half Kenyan and half American announced that he would run for President of the United States in February, 2007. Obama is a junior United States Senator from Illinois. He is only the fifth African-American Senator in US history and the only one currently serving. Obama has led a successful grassroots campaign throughout the year and received major backing from celebrities, most notably Oprah Winfrey who joined him on the campaign trail in December. Obama even did a little dance on the Ellen Show to show the world how he gets down! Obama has plans to change things for the better in the White House, he just needs your vote.

From Jamati Online